IGOs

The fifth assessment round of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) began to devote significant attention to Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) related to its atmospheric carbon scenarios, effectively moving toward a complementary set of socio-economic scenarios for analysis of mitigation and adaptation possibilities. The Pardee Center has collected the supporting forecasts from participating research groups and added those to IFs for all to use, participated in work on a special issue of Climatic Change around such analysis, and worked with personnel from the National Center for Atmospheric Research during the SSP process. On the shoulders of this effort we also collaborated with the United Nations University's Institute for Environment and Human Security on a publication in Climatic Change that uses IFs to explore climate change and disaster risk.

 

The Pardee Center has provided a series of hands-on trainings for the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) officials in support of efforts to develop a long-term Growth and Development Plan for the African Union. The Center has prepared a report on African Futures as a foundational element of those efforts.

 

 

 

 

 

Under sponsorship of the European Commission's Fifth Framework Programme (1998-2002) RAND Europe led a large consortium of partners in a long-term forecasting project called TERRA. The IFs team was invited to join the European members of that consortium and to provide the integrated, long-term modeling and forecasting foundation for it.

 

 

 

The United Nations Development Program has solicited research papers using IFs that provided input used in the 2011 and 2013 Human Development Reports (HDR). The research in support of the 2011 HDR focused on environmental constraints to human development. The research in support of the 2013 report modeled the impact of aggressive but reasonable policy interventions across thematic issue areas.

 

 

 

 

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) produces global environment outlooks (GEO reports) every few years under its charge from the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. The IFs team participated actively in the preparation of GEO-4, released in 2007. Forecasts from IFs helped integrate forecasts from other contributing groups in that project.

 

 

 

 

As a successor to the Millennium Development Goal of reducing extreme poverty by 50 percent before 2015, the global community is rapidly moving toward setting a goal of eliminating it by 2030 (using 3 percent as a target for effective elimination). That goal appears very likely beyond the reach of fragile and conflict-afflicted states. The Pardee Center is collaborating with the World Bank's Center on Conflict, Security, and Development to forecast probable and possible levels of poverty in those states and to explore interventions that might accelerate reduction, even if the 3 percent poverty level does not appear attainable.